2012
07.17

A few of us proclaimed it last September: Windows Server 2012 is to VMware as Windows 2000 was to Novell.  Evidence that others agree?

Gigaom reports that:

VMware left its core business exposed, they say, first by announcing heavy-handed vSphere price hikes last year that, in the words of one VMware watcher, “kicked the door open for Microsoft Hyper-V.” VMware has yet to recover from that, in his view.  Silicon Valley is baffled at how easy VMware has made it for Microsoft to come in and take all the easy stuff.

TechCrunch reports that:

Paul Maritz is out as the CEO of VMware and will be replaced by EMC COO Pat Gelsinger.

In my opinion, investing in a VMware solution right now would be like investing in IntraNetware in 2000.  You’ll have buyers remorse come September when Windows Server 2012 goes GA.

According to Google, the VMW stock on the New York Stock Exchange is also trending downwards over the past 3 months.  Meanwhile MSFT is running it’s usual unexciting steady.

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I guess the people have figured out what the Emperor has been wearing for a while.

Meanwhile, the VMware marketing engine is doing their best to tell us how well they did in the past.  Yes, Novell was a market leader once.  So was Netscape.  So was Lotus Notes.  Spotting the trend here?

I’m happily waiting to moderate (aka delete) the VMware marketing/fanboy comments on this one unless they’re so badly informed that I’ll gladly approve to shoot them down with cold hard correct facts Smile

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7 comments so far

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  1. Anybody who watches the industry knows that this day was coming. Just last week I was in a meeting with a large integrator which was trying to sell me vblocks for a new datacenter I’m planning. I told them that VMWare is the new Novell and they were surprised at my statement. One of the sales crew mentioned that he worked at Novell in the 90s. When I gave them some stats about current Hyper-V then explained what was coming in Server 2012 they were surprised, truly scratching their heads. I also told them that VMWare isn’t crap. It is a good stable platform that can get the job done, no questions. Since I am investing in the future I’m putting my money on Hyper-V as this is the better play, both today and long term.

    Mark Ringo

    • Mark,
      I’d heard similar about VMware locally. They had not been briefed and they were assuming that it was the same old Hyper-V as before. As I say, never assume in virtualisation, because you are already wrong when you do.

  2. I am a Microsoft consultant and from what i’ve seen so far, is that we need to say a big THANK YOU for VMware for driving Microsoft to develop a product that is much more feature rich and scalable than the previous versions. i think that we need that VMware will still be a serious competitor because this competition it’s what giving us (microsoft enthusiast) such an advanced products.
    so i don’t want microsoft to think it has a monopol in the virtualization world like in the office products.
    So in summary i think that in the long run VMware needs to be a strong competitor and just pepople needs to change the way they used to think Virtualization=VMware and start thinking Virtualization=Microsoft Hyper-V.

  3. I am not a Microsoft fanboy nor a VMware fanboy. I just do no care about the solution but care about my customers. Just my two cents:
    1. Microsoft prefers to announce features of upcoming releases many months in advance. VMware does not reveal anything about pricing and features before the launch of the product. We have to wait and see what VMware will announce on vSphere end of August at VMworld or near future. Reduce of price, get rid of vRAM entitlement. It could lead to a whole different discussion.
    2. Features do not say anything about it’s reliability. vSphere is proven technology. Hyper-V 3 will bring many new features which have to prove itself into full blown production.
    3. Reliable sources say Paul Maritz decided to change job himself and will have a major role at EMC. I do not see a relation with VMware going the same road as Novell like you are suggesting.

    Windows Server 2012 Hyper-V is a very attractive solution and good=good enough for many organizations and SMB in particular. I am sure Microsoft will take marketshare from VMware. How much depends on if VMware is willing to reduce license costs and put some more effort on marketing.

    • Marcel,

      You underestimate WS2012 Hyper-V by excluding enterprise. Pretty much all the cloud OS features are aimed at that space and the hosting market, both of which VMware insulted by jacking up pricing with vRAM taxation. Combine with System Center, which is very economic in that space under ECI licensing, they get a complete cloud and enterprise management solution that costs less than vSphere Enterprise Plus by itself, let alone the add on’s for vCloud Director, vOperations Manager, etc.

      • This also discounts just how thoroughly vetted the new Server 2012 will be by the time it is released. There have been many many ENTERPRISE customers in the TAP program running on Server 2012 (and Hyper-V) for quite some time. From what I have heard, they are all happy with it and plan to move quickly to the new platform. Also, Bing is 100% deployed on Server 2012 already. That’s a lot of testing and “proving”.

  4. Interesting read Aidan as it confirms discussions amongst our team here. Virtualisation solution designs for our customers will be Microsoft not VMware based now .That’s using Windows 2008 and not 2012 as the costs on paper for licensing aren’t helping VMware’s case even if they have an advantage vs the 2008 product. We’ve just finished working on a vCloud Director solution but I can’t believe we’ll ever get to use the design again. Time to hit the home lab again and reskill…..

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